What to invest in during a period of high inflation?

Coraz częściej słyszymy w mediach o inflacji i jej wpływie na nasze oszczędności.

Co to jest inflacja i jak wpływa na nasze oszczędności? Oto pytania, które zadajemy sobie coraz częściej.

Otóż inflacja, to proces wzrostu przeciętnego poziomu cen w gospodarce (inflatio łac.- ?nadęcie?). To ukryty podatek, którego nie widzimy na co dzień, ale wpływa on na koszty i  siłę nabywczą, jakie posiadają nasze zarobki czy oszczędności. Inflacja zjada nasze oszczędności: inflacja roczna na poziomie 5% oznacza, że na koniec roku nasze oszczędności są warte właśnie o 5% mniej. Stąd, dla wielu inwestorów celem nadrzędnym jest pokonać próg inflacji w  danym roku i  to uznają za sukces.

Jaka jest inflacja w Polsce AD 2021? 
Okazuje się, że w marcu 2021 roku inflacja tzw. CPI (tzw. konsumencka czyli określająca wzrost cen dla gospodarstw domowych) w Polsce wzrosła w ujęciu rocznym aż o 3,2 proc. ? tak wynika z ostatecznego szacunku GUS. Wzrost cen żywności pozostał na poziomie 0,7 proc.  miesiąc do miesiąca (m/m), cen nośników energii na poziomie 0,1 proc. m/m, a cen paliw na poziomie 6,6 proc. m/m. Wskaźnik cen usług w marcu wzrósł z kolei do 7,3  proc. r/r z 7 proc. r/r w lutym. Wskaźnik inflacji bazowej (po wykluczeniu cen żywności i energii) wzrósł do około 3,9 proc. /r z 3,7 proc. r/r w lutym.
(źródło: https://www.analizy.pl/tylko-u-nas/27241/inflacja-w-polsce-jest-najwyzsza-od-roku-i-jeszcze-przyspieszy).

Inflacja w Polsce  jest już dwa razy wyższa niż średnia w EU.

Czy to jest koniec wzrostu cen? Niestety, większość ekspertów nie pozostawia nam złudzeń: w kolejnych miesiącach inflacja będzie jeszcze wyższa.

?źródło: https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/makroekonomia/polska-z-najwyzsza-inflacja-w-unii-europejskiej/05ef62x).  

Co ma w takiej sytuacji zrobić Jan Kowalski, który posiada nadwyżkę finansową? Jak i gdzie powinien oszczędzać? Jak inwestować? Gdzie szukać bezpiecznego schronienia dla swoich nadwyżek? Jak chronić swoje oszczędności przed inflacją?

Podstawowym wyborem są lokaty bankowe. Niestety, oprocentowanie lokat terminowych w bankach komercyjnych działających w Polsce jest najniższe w historii i sięga ok. 0,1% w skali roku, co oznacza, że lokaty bankowe nie chronią nasze oszczędności przed inflacją. Jednocześnie polityka NBP utrzymywania niskich stóp procentowych prowadzi do groźniejszego zjawiska - pojawia się już groźba wprowadzenia opłat za utrzymywanie depozytów o czym wspominaną media ekonomiczne m.in. Business Insider (www.https://businessinsider.com.pl/twoje-pieniadze/budzet-domowy/ujemne-oprocentowanie-lokat/hz540ex

Zdecydowanie lepszą opcją jest lokowanie tych nadwyżek w obligacje emitowane przez Skarb Państwa. Analitycy Crowder.PRO przyjrzeli się więc ofercie papierów skarbowych oferowanych przez Ministerstwo Finansów ? poniżej efekt tej analizy.

We are increasingly hearing in the media about inflation and its impact on our savings.

What is inflation and how does it affect our savings? These are the questions we are asking ourselves more and more often.

Inflation is the process of increasing the average price level in the economy (inflatio latin- "overcoating"). It's a hidden tax that we don't see every day, but it affects the costs and purchasing power that our earnings or savings have. Inflation eats up our savings: annual inflation of 5% means that at the end of the year our savings are worth just 5% less. Hence, for many investors, the overarching goal is to beat the inflation threshold in a given year and consider it a success.

What is the inflation in Poland AD 2021?
It turns out that in March 2021, inflation of the so-called CPI (so-called consumer or household price increase) in Poland increased by as much as 3.2% on an annual basis ? this is according to the final estimate of the GUS. Food price growth remained at 0.7% month-on-month (m/m), energy prices at 0.1.m/m and fuel prices at 6.6.m/m. The service price index rose to 7.3% yoy in March from 7% yoy in February. The core inflation rate (excluding food and energy prices) rose to around 3.9% yoy from 3.7% yoy in February.
(source: https://www.analizy.pl/tylko-u-nas/27241/inflacja-w-polsce-jest-najwyzsza-od-roku-i-jeszcze-przyspieszy).

Inflation in Poland is already twice as high as the EU average.

Is this the end of price increases? Unfortunately, most experts leave us under no illusions: inflation will be even higher in the coming months. source: https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/makroekonomia/polska-z-najwyzsza-inflacja-w-unii-europejskiej/05ef62x) 

What should John Kowalski, who has a financial surplus, do in this situation? How and where should it save? How to invest? Where to seek safe haven for your supersedes? How to protect your savings from inflation?

The main choice is bank deposits. Unfortunately, the interest rate on term deposits in commercial banks operating in Poland is the lowest in history and reaches about 0.1% per year, which means that bank deposits do not protect our savings from inflation. At the same time, NBP's policy of keeping interest rates low is leading to a more dangerous phenomenon - there is already a threat of deposit maintenance fees, as mentioned in the economic media  Business Insider (https://businessinsider.com.pl/twoje-pieniadze/budzet-domowy/ujemne-oprocentowanie-lokat/hz540ex)

A much better option is to invest these increases in bonds issued by the Treasury. Analysts Crowder.PRO looked at the offer of treasury securities offered by the Ministry of Finance ? below the effect of this analysis.

Treasury Bonds ? Selected Types

Currently, in April 2021, the Ministry of Finance offers investors as many as eight different government bonds. They differ in maturity, i.e. maturity, and interest rate. The general rule is that the longer the maturity, the higher the interest rate offered. Highest interest rate ? indexed by inflation rate (currently around 4.7%) is possible with 12-year bonds. Lowest interest rate ? 0.5% per annum have three-month bonds. When you buy these bonds worth PLN 100,000 after a quarter of saving, the investor will gain only ... 125 PLN gross. From this should be deducted the so-called beam tax on capital gains of 19% on these profits.

What are the other options for government bonds?

POS Premium Bonds

Bonus bonds have a maturity of 10 months. They are additionally characterized by the fact that the Treasury guarantees interest of 0.5% per year and offers the chance to win additional money in the form of bonuses. The draw for this bonus was carried out on 19 March 2020, using a professional electronic match that allows random selection of bond numbers.

Family 12-year savings government bonds (12-year bonds with ROD symbol)

12-year ROD Family Government Bonds are the highest interest rate of all the bonds offered ? at 2.00% per annum, with an annual interest capitalization with the fact that these 2.00 % will be charged only a in the first annual interest period, and in subsequent annual interest periods the interest rate will be calculated according to the formula: 1.50% margin + inflation.

Features of family bonds of twelve years:

  • are in continuous sales (monthly new offer),
  • interest rate is variable. In the first annual interest period it is 2.00%. In subsequent annual interest periods, it is calculated as the sum of inflation and interest margin of 1.50% (guaranteeing a profit above inflation),
  • interest is capitalised and paid on purchase ? additional profit for the buyer,
  • the sale price is fixed at 100 PLN.
  • interest is capitalized (which greatly increases profitability) and paid on the redemption date.

ROD bonds offer the highest interest rate on all the bonds offered by the Treasury ? currently around 4.7% per annum (with a CPI inflation rate of -3.2%). This is the only treasury paper that can realistically protect our savings from inflation. However, such a high interest rate comes at the expense of liquidity because the investment is long-term for 12 years, the least liquid government bonds.

DOS 2-year bonds become coupon

2-year bonds (DOS0423) with an interest rate of 1.00% each year of saving, with an annual capitalization of interest.

Features of two-year bonds:

  • are in continuous sales (monthly new offer),
  • interest rate is 1.00% and is fixed for 2 years,
  • the sale price is fixed at 100 PLN.

The interest rate is fixed with an annual capitalization of interest. In the first year (interest period) the interest rate is charged on the value of PLN 100, and in the second year (interest period) on the value of PLN 100 plus interest accrued for the first year. The fixed interest rate makes the buyer of two-year bonds already aware of the amount of interest they will receive after two years of saving at the time of purchase.

If you need to end your savings early (early redemption), you can withdraw the deposited money (return any number of bonds held). If this option is exercised, the value of the accrued interest will be reduced by the fee specified in the bond's issue list.

3-year TOZ floating-purchase bonds

These bonds have a maturity of 3 years. The bonds offered shall be at an interest rate of 1,10 % in the first six-month interest period, in subsequent six-month interest periods with interest payments every six months with a variable interest calculated according to the formula: multiplier 1,00 x WIBOR 6M,. Three-year bonds are variable-rate bonds updated every six months. In subsequent periods, the interest rate at which banks lend themselves money (the so-called WIBOR 6M rate) is equal. (The WIBOR value can be found e.g. on Bankier.pl portal  (https://www.bankier.pl/mieszkaniowe/stopy-procentowe/wibor). Currently, the WIBOR6m rate is 0.25%. This means that from 7 months the holder of such a bond earns 0.25% per annum (i.e. about 2x more than the average annual bank deposit).

Features of TOZ three-year bonds:

  • are in continuous sales (monthly new offer);
  • interest rate is variable. In the first six months the interest rate is 1.10%, In subsequent periods it is equal to the interest rate at which banks borrow money (so-called WIBOR rate 6M);
  • payment of interest every six months;
  • the sale price is fixed at 100 PLN.

Interest is paid to the bondholder every six months. Interest periods are indicated in the issue letter. Interest rates for the second and subsequent interest periods are published on the websites www.obligacjeskarbowe.pl and www.gov.pl/finanse/dlug-publiczny

Źródło www.obligacjeskarbowe.pl